Buying a Kindle DX ten months ago and now an iPad (delivered in the first batch on April 3rd), it really struck me recently how messy (or exciting!) everything is getting.  Mash-ups of business models are happening everywhere, and at an accelerating pace.  Here are a dozen big trends that I'm watching for this year, some relevant to Bazaarvoice and others not so much:

1. After Amazon.com launched the Kindle, it quickly became their number-one seller.  The free wifi to download a book from anywhere was just too compelling to pass up, along with the very easy to read screen.  Amazon projected that it would increase compulsive buying of books to the point where the wifi was subsidized by Amazon.com.  And it is working (for now).
2. And while we're talking about compulsive buying, consider Amazon.com Prime for "consolidated" buying vs. other retailers.  Other retailers have tried to emulate Prime and failed to do so.  It is difficult to do – you have to be very quick to ship (i.e., many distribution centers), with the availability (i.e., tons of inventory), to really trigger the compulsive buying effect.  There are profound implications on the long-tail as Amazon.com expands.  And, in their most recent quarterly report, Amazon's same-store U.S. sales were up a staggering 75%.  It seems that both the Kindle and Prime are triggering the compulsive buying effect, coupled with Amazon's long-tail inventory.  Many retailers same-store sales are flat to down as we come out of the Great Recession, and Amazon.com's stellar performance has to be noticed by them.  Our Chief Marketing Officer, Sam, blogged about this in November of 2008 and it is even more true today.
3. Enter the iPad.  The week Apple launched the iPad it sold 450,000 units with 600,000 books (via iBooks) shortly after.  Now that I have had the iPad for awhile, I don't just think of it as competitive with the Kindle or other eReaders or "tablets" – it is also competitive with netbooks (another mash-up), as Steve Jobs eagerly stressed.  Just project out a few years when the iPad has 256gb capacity, instead of the 64gb my model has today, combined with the new iPhone 4.0 OS (coming out at the end of this year) that enables multitasking, a micro-USB port or two, and wireless streaming everywhere allowing for seamless connectivity no matter where you are.  The iPad already has a keyboard docking station, which I also bought, and, of course, bluetooth for connecting to wireless keyboards.  And new TVs and DVDs are coming out with built-in home network and wireless capabilities, allowing you to stream TV to laptops, netbooks, desktops, iPads, iPhones, or whatever you choose to use around the house (or while you are on the road if you have a Slingbox or something similar).  The bottom line is that the genius author, Kevin Kelly, got it right in this Wired magazine article (comparing tablets to a portable window into the world).
4. Will the iPad hurt Kindle sales?  Many Wall Street analysts and journalists think so.  My personal take?  Well, I was skeptical about whether or not I would enjoy reading books on it as much as I do the Kindle.  Initially we were just buying the iPad as a family device for watching movies, playing games, and keeping up with blogs, Facebook, and Twitter.  But now with the Kindle app loaded on my iPad, adjusted to a sepia "paper" color and 60% brightness, I can read for hours just fine.  But to really see how the iPad transforms books, just check out the book it comes pre-loaded with (a Winnie the Pooh children's book, which is, of course, in beautiful color).  No color on the Kindle.  Every try to read a no-color book to a child?  And then check out the app, The Elements, which has gorgeous color, 3D illustrations, and full-on video.  Or look at what Wired magazine may be planning to do with tablets.  I was watching Alice in Wonderland with our daughter recently, and Alice said (shortly before falling down the rabbit hole), "What is the use of a book, without pictures or conversations?".  Just look back in history at the adoption rates once color television came out vs. black-and-white television.  It is just a matter of time before our children are carrying interactive tablets in their backpacks instead of heavy textbooks.  Yes, I think it is going to impact Kindle sales.
5. Ok, let's talk about mobile.  Google's Android (open platform) continues to gain traction vs. Apple's iPhone OS (closed platform).  It wasn't surprising to me when Eric Schmidt resigned from Apple's Board of Directors.  I moderated a panel of amazing venture capitalists at NRF and Shop.org's Innovate conference back in March, where my good friend Peter Fenton of Benchmark Capital predicted that Android would overtake the iPhone OS over time.  Of course, Android will power tablets too.  We've seen this movie before as Apple stayed closed vs. the PC world being open.  Will the movie be the same this time?
6. Mobile is now at a tipping point, with GPS built in, good camera phones, and great web browsers (e.g., Safari and Chrome).  We'll see a lot of mash-ups in this area as mobile is increasingly used by consumers while in stores, which will one-up the mobile use we've seen in social commerce so far.  Interestingly, the VCs on my NRF and Shop.org panel in March thought it would take several years, so our prediction about "the year of mobile" in 2009 may have been a bit early, although I would argue that the iPhone's rapid adoption that year did change the game.  And it certainly hasn't slowed down Mary Meeker at Morgan Stanley to produce the most comprehensive report (at 424 pages) I've ever seen on the state of the mobile industry, nor did it prevent NRF and Shop.org from having a Mobile Boot Camp at the March conference.
7. How about blogging?  My guess is that blog-post length has decreased (this post aside!) as Facebook has increased to a longer status format and people have become more and more used to Twitter's 140-character length updates.  Perhaps blog views have also decreased.  This leads to more "lightweight", or surface-level, conversations than the deeper-thinking conversations on blogs.  But we'll survive just fine.  I simply don't buy Nick Carr's arguments but I'll debate that later if you wish.
8. Although this would be the obvious place to discuss this trend, I'll purposely stay away from Facebook Like vs. Google Buzz vs. Google AdSense as my co-founder and our Chief Innovation Officer, Brant, is addressing that in a future post.  But needless to say, social is permeating the Web and that trend is accelerating, so we will continue to innovate quickly in this area.
9. Let's talk about transparency.  At the Liberty Interactive NetLeaders Forum in 2008, I remember Rich Barton, founder of Expedia and Zillow, presenting, "everything that can be reviewed will be reviewed [on the Web]".  He showed us examples of CEOs being reviewed on Glassdoor.com.  My opinion?  This will lead to a company culture revolution, which is part of the reason I feel so compelled to write my forthcoming book, How to Make Your Company Suck Less.  And Chris Fralic of First Round Capital as well as Kamal Kirpalani of Bazaarvoice recently asked me to review them on Unvarnished.  I wrote about transparency awhile back, based on a leadership talk I gave at The Wharton School.  In short, I think this is a very profound trend that will not only cause a renaissance in commerce but also in politics, government, and all types of human activities and relationships.
10. At Bazaarvoice, we're leading a revolution of marketing and merchandising with social commerce and user-generated content – or (my preference) digital word of mouth.  Digital word of mouth is quickly becoming the central point of insight for marketers and merchants.  We are writing the marketing and merchandising textbook of the future in our work with our clients (read my previous thoughts on this, from when we reached out 100-billion-impression milestone in February).  Digital word of mouth is getting mashed-up versus the aging focus group, NetPromoter, customer survey, and other methods that get "close" but aren't nearly as pure as how customers speak to each other with no bias vs. how they communicate while in the context of talking to the company.  Things for you to consider here: a) the market has always been based on conversations (read this chapter that was the namesake of our company), b) reviews are the new advertising as we are already beginning to commonly see, c) consumers write reviews to help each other (i.e., altruism, or with no bias), and d) this trend is why Google and Nielsen partnered with us.
11. Channel marketing is becoming more wired.  We see a major trend in this area with the adoption of our BrandVoice and BrandAnswers solutions.  We are at the beginning of this shift, and it is logical to think that, just as offline to advertising shift has fueled online advertising, we will see a similar accelerating trend as suppliers of retailers become more savvy at online channel marketing in a world where 80% of consumers read reviews while they are shopping (Nielsen's most recent stat).  And, of course, mobile is a major accelerant of this trend.
12. Finally, the digital executive will continue to rise in prominence as companies work hard to make sense of the rapid shift to a more digital, hyper-connected world.  For some early indicators of this, look at Raul Vazquez's promotion from CEO of Walmart.com to EVP and President of Walmart West.  Or Toby Lenk's, the founder of the original eToys, rise to President of Direct at Gap.  (I should mention that both are among the best speakers we have ever had at Shop.org events, where I proudly serve on the Board of Directors.)  These are very exciting times for those who really "get it" in digital.

For the long-term potential of the Web, I recommend you check out Kevin Kelly's speech at TED in Dec 2007 or his similarly brilliant article in Wired magazine.  And if you have time to get really far out in thinking about technology's impact on the world, just read chapter 1 (trust me, it's enough) of Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (thanks to my good friend, Ethan Holland at American Eagle, for suggesting it to me).

He also knows a thing or two about word-of-mouth marketing.  Outside of the fact that he has made many investments that have to do with the subject, you may remember that Half.com bought the naming rights to a city in Oregon and renamed it Half.com.  This was a seemingly silly PR stunt (as I remember how the media initially reported the story at the time), but it paid off in spades.  Read Mark Hughes bio (a past speaker at a Word of Mouth Marketing Association conference) and you'll see what I mean.

1. In December, Time Magazine announced that their “Person of the Year” is “you”.  As in the “prosumer”, or consumer-turned-producer.  Do you agree that the power of the “crowd” was the biggest trend of 2006?

Yes.  I think we’re seeing a major shift in the online value chain.  The initial killer application of the Internet was email (one-to-one), followed by websites (one-to-many).  We’re now seeing the creation of a whole class of tools that easily allow people to create, organize and publicize content (many-to-many).  With so much content being put online every day, the big challenge (and opportunity) is to find ways to help people discover the stuff that is relevant to them.  Leveraging the “wisdom of crowds” to intelligently filter/recommend content is a very large and meaningful opportunity.  

Other than Bazaarvoice (of course), other “social media” companies in our portfolio include:

VideoEgg has built a very powerful distributed video network – and currently power the user-generated video of 5 of the top 20 social networks (AOL, Bebo, Hi5, Tagged, and MyYearbook).

StumbleUpon has developed an innovative (and addicting) way to harness the wisdom of crowds for website discovery.

Aggregate Knowledge uses the behavior of previous visitors to a web page to automatically generate product and content recommendations.

Wikia was founded by Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia.  The company leverages people's innate need to create, share, and contribute to the subject areas that they are most passionate about.

3. How do you think consumer-generated content will impact the world of advertising?

I see it having an impact in a couple of ways.  First, advertising goes where the eyeballs are.  Consumers are spending far more time consuming consumer-generated content so over time advertising budgets will increasingly move towards that space.  Second, it increasingly allows consumers to participate in the advertising process itself.  The traditional one-way advertising broadcast model is now evolving towards more of a dialog between advertisers and consumers.  Forward thinking advertisers are using the collective intelligence and creativity of their consumers to help them craft their messages and even create their advertising.  This will result in advertising that is much more personal and relevant.

4. Do you think Google overpaid for YouTube?

No.  With its massive user base and powerful community, YouTube has clearly emerged as the leader in the online video sharing space.  With online video advertising set to exceed $1BB by the end of next year, and Google's ability to extract the most value out of any given online inventory, the acquisition seems like a very savvy move on Google's part.  This is especially true when you think about the fact that we are only beginning to see the potential of video on the Web, and the opportunities that lie ahead in this space.

5. Given your experience at Half.com, what advice would you give our clients in leveraging their consumer-generated content?

I think it's important to understand the impact that consumer-generated content such as ratings and reviews can have on a business.  In addition to allowing your consumers to communicate with each other, they also allow online merchants to begin tapping into the wisdom inherent in their current consumer base, and leverage that to create a better shopping experience for everyone who comes after them.  Companies can no longer afford to not participate in the dialog that their customers are having about them and the products/service that they provide.

6. What is the future of consumer-generated content?  Where does all of this lead us 5 years from now?  10 years?

Consumers today are more empowered than ever. It is now cheaper and easier than ever to create content, share your opinion, and distribute it over the Web. While this will inevitably create an overabundance of content, it will make finding the content that is most relevant to you increasingly difficult.  Over time I think there will be less reliance on traditional “editors” (e.g. newspapers) and “packagers” (e.g. music labels, publishers and studios) and more reliance on automated discovery tools that harness the "implicit web" to allow people to find the content that is most interesting to them.

7. What do you think the biggest trend of 2007 will be?

Online video has reached a tipping point. Given the amount of innovation, new developments, and widespread consumer adoption in this space, I think video will continue to be the biggest trend of 2007.

I'm sure Josh would love to hear your comments, so please write in. 

Speaking of bad profits, I was especially intrigued this morning to read about my friends at 1-800-FREE-411 (Jingle Networks). TechCrunch reports that 1-800-FREE-411 has already received 100 million 411 calls! It has taken over 3% of the $8 billion 411 market. I know the CEO of this company (he founded Flycast with a fellow Wharton MBA graduate from my class), as well as their early investor Josh Kopelman, who is also an investor in Bazaarvoice and the founder of Half.com. I consider these two some of the smartest people I am fortunate enough to know. This is another stunning example of bad profits creating an incredibly huge and disruptive market opportunity. 1-800-FREE-411 has the easiest marketing slogan I have seen in a long time – everything you need to know is right there in the phone number. To learn more about what created this opportunity, check out Josh Kopelman's great blog post.

There are so many recent examples of bad profits in action. Think of the incredibly disruptive Skype, which yesterday had over 8 million users online. The negative word-of-mouth from exorbitant long distance fees paved the way for Skype's success. And, of course, everyone knows by now that eBay bought them for $2.6 billion.

Where are the bad profits in your industry and how can you capitalize on them?

Do you have any bad profits yourself? One example I can think of in retail is the difficulty of returns when you have a bad experience with a product. Costco capitalizes on that by providing unlimited returns on all items (i.e. buy a TV, save the receipt, and you can literally return it 2 years later if it breaks). Their only exception is for computers – there is a 6-month policy on those. I have been tracking Costco's success for years to see if this incredibly customer-friendly policy would hurt them. Quite to the contrary, Costco has thrived as a result. I encourage you to read my friend Gary Stein's blog for more analysis on Costco.

If you are a Bazaarvoice client, we suggest you measure your word-of-mouth promoters and detractors with our Net Promoter service. We haven't promoted it as well as we should (we'll change that), but it is truly powerful and will illuminate any potential sources of "bad profits" and word-of-mouth detractors.

And now enjoy the free 411 calls!