Buying a Kindle DX ten months ago and now an iPad (delivered in the first batch on April 3rd), it really struck me recently how messy (or exciting!) everything is getting.  Mash-ups of business models are happening everywhere, and at an accelerating pace.  Here are a dozen big trends that I'm watching for this year, some relevant to Bazaarvoice and others not so much:

1. After Amazon.com launched the Kindle, it quickly became their number-one seller.  The free wifi to download a book from anywhere was just too compelling to pass up, along with the very easy to read screen.  Amazon projected that it would increase compulsive buying of books to the point where the wifi was subsidized by Amazon.com.  And it is working (for now).
2. And while we're talking about compulsive buying, consider Amazon.com Prime for "consolidated" buying vs. other retailers.  Other retailers have tried to emulate Prime and failed to do so.  It is difficult to do – you have to be very quick to ship (i.e., many distribution centers), with the availability (i.e., tons of inventory), to really trigger the compulsive buying effect.  There are profound implications on the long-tail as Amazon.com expands.  And, in their most recent quarterly report, Amazon's same-store U.S. sales were up a staggering 75%.  It seems that both the Kindle and Prime are triggering the compulsive buying effect, coupled with Amazon's long-tail inventory.  Many retailers same-store sales are flat to down as we come out of the Great Recession, and Amazon.com's stellar performance has to be noticed by them.  Our Chief Marketing Officer, Sam, blogged about this in November of 2008 and it is even more true today.
3. Enter the iPad.  The week Apple launched the iPad it sold 450,000 units with 600,000 books (via iBooks) shortly after.  Now that I have had the iPad for awhile, I don't just think of it as competitive with the Kindle or other eReaders or "tablets" – it is also competitive with netbooks (another mash-up), as Steve Jobs eagerly stressed.  Just project out a few years when the iPad has 256gb capacity, instead of the 64gb my model has today, combined with the new iPhone 4.0 OS (coming out at the end of this year) that enables multitasking, a micro-USB port or two, and wireless streaming everywhere allowing for seamless connectivity no matter where you are.  The iPad already has a keyboard docking station, which I also bought, and, of course, bluetooth for connecting to wireless keyboards.  And new TVs and DVDs are coming out with built-in home network and wireless capabilities, allowing you to stream TV to laptops, netbooks, desktops, iPads, iPhones, or whatever you choose to use around the house (or while you are on the road if you have a Slingbox or something similar).  The bottom line is that the genius author, Kevin Kelly, got it right in this Wired magazine article (comparing tablets to a portable window into the world).
4. Will the iPad hurt Kindle sales?  Many Wall Street analysts and journalists think so.  My personal take?  Well, I was skeptical about whether or not I would enjoy reading books on it as much as I do the Kindle.  Initially we were just buying the iPad as a family device for watching movies, playing games, and keeping up with blogs, Facebook, and Twitter.  But now with the Kindle app loaded on my iPad, adjusted to a sepia "paper" color and 60% brightness, I can read for hours just fine.  But to really see how the iPad transforms books, just check out the book it comes pre-loaded with (a Winnie the Pooh children's book, which is, of course, in beautiful color).  No color on the Kindle.  Every try to read a no-color book to a child?  And then check out the app, The Elements, which has gorgeous color, 3D illustrations, and full-on video.  Or look at what Wired magazine may be planning to do with tablets.  I was watching Alice in Wonderland with our daughter recently, and Alice said (shortly before falling down the rabbit hole), "What is the use of a book, without pictures or conversations?".  Just look back in history at the adoption rates once color television came out vs. black-and-white television.  It is just a matter of time before our children are carrying interactive tablets in their backpacks instead of heavy textbooks.  Yes, I think it is going to impact Kindle sales.
5. Ok, let's talk about mobile.  Google's Android (open platform) continues to gain traction vs. Apple's iPhone OS (closed platform).  It wasn't surprising to me when Eric Schmidt resigned from Apple's Board of Directors.  I moderated a panel of amazing venture capitalists at NRF and Shop.org's Innovate conference back in March, where my good friend Peter Fenton of Benchmark Capital predicted that Android would overtake the iPhone OS over time.  Of course, Android will power tablets too.  We've seen this movie before as Apple stayed closed vs. the PC world being open.  Will the movie be the same this time?
6. Mobile is now at a tipping point, with GPS built in, good camera phones, and great web browsers (e.g., Safari and Chrome).  We'll see a lot of mash-ups in this area as mobile is increasingly used by consumers while in stores, which will one-up the mobile use we've seen in social commerce so far.  Interestingly, the VCs on my NRF and Shop.org panel in March thought it would take several years, so our prediction about "the year of mobile" in 2009 may have been a bit early, although I would argue that the iPhone's rapid adoption that year did change the game.  And it certainly hasn't slowed down Mary Meeker at Morgan Stanley to produce the most comprehensive report (at 424 pages) I've ever seen on the state of the mobile industry, nor did it prevent NRF and Shop.org from having a Mobile Boot Camp at the March conference.
7. How about blogging?  My guess is that blog-post length has decreased (this post aside!) as Facebook has increased to a longer status format and people have become more and more used to Twitter's 140-character length updates.  Perhaps blog views have also decreased.  This leads to more "lightweight", or surface-level, conversations than the deeper-thinking conversations on blogs.  But we'll survive just fine.  I simply don't buy Nick Carr's arguments but I'll debate that later if you wish.
8. Although this would be the obvious place to discuss this trend, I'll purposely stay away from Facebook Like vs. Google Buzz vs. Google AdSense as my co-founder and our Chief Innovation Officer, Brant, is addressing that in a future post.  But needless to say, social is permeating the Web and that trend is accelerating, so we will continue to innovate quickly in this area.
9. Let's talk about transparency.  At the Liberty Interactive NetLeaders Forum in 2008, I remember Rich Barton, founder of Expedia and Zillow, presenting, "everything that can be reviewed will be reviewed [on the Web]".  He showed us examples of CEOs being reviewed on Glassdoor.com.  My opinion?  This will lead to a company culture revolution, which is part of the reason I feel so compelled to write my forthcoming book, How to Make Your Company Suck Less.  And Chris Fralic of First Round Capital as well as Kamal Kirpalani of Bazaarvoice recently asked me to review them on Unvarnished.  I wrote about transparency awhile back, based on a leadership talk I gave at The Wharton School.  In short, I think this is a very profound trend that will not only cause a renaissance in commerce but also in politics, government, and all types of human activities and relationships.
10. At Bazaarvoice, we're leading a revolution of marketing and merchandising with social commerce and user-generated content – or (my preference) digital word of mouth.  Digital word of mouth is quickly becoming the central point of insight for marketers and merchants.  We are writing the marketing and merchandising textbook of the future in our work with our clients (read my previous thoughts on this, from when we reached out 100-billion-impression milestone in February).  Digital word of mouth is getting mashed-up versus the aging focus group, NetPromoter, customer survey, and other methods that get "close" but aren't nearly as pure as how customers speak to each other with no bias vs. how they communicate while in the context of talking to the company.  Things for you to consider here: a) the market has always been based on conversations (read this chapter that was the namesake of our company), b) reviews are the new advertising as we are already beginning to commonly see, c) consumers write reviews to help each other (i.e., altruism, or with no bias), and d) this trend is why Google and Nielsen partnered with us.
11. Channel marketing is becoming more wired.  We see a major trend in this area with the adoption of our BrandVoice and BrandAnswers solutions.  We are at the beginning of this shift, and it is logical to think that, just as offline to advertising shift has fueled online advertising, we will see a similar accelerating trend as suppliers of retailers become more savvy at online channel marketing in a world where 80% of consumers read reviews while they are shopping (Nielsen's most recent stat).  And, of course, mobile is a major accelerant of this trend.
12. Finally, the digital executive will continue to rise in prominence as companies work hard to make sense of the rapid shift to a more digital, hyper-connected world.  For some early indicators of this, look at Raul Vazquez's promotion from CEO of Walmart.com to EVP and President of Walmart West.  Or Toby Lenk's, the founder of the original eToys, rise to President of Direct at Gap.  (I should mention that both are among the best speakers we have ever had at Shop.org events, where I proudly serve on the Board of Directors.)  These are very exciting times for those who really "get it" in digital.

For the long-term potential of the Web, I recommend you check out Kevin Kelly's speech at TED in Dec 2007 or his similarly brilliant article in Wired magazine.  And if you have time to get really far out in thinking about technology's impact on the world, just read chapter 1 (trust me, it's enough) of Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (thanks to my good friend, Ethan Holland at American Eagle, for suggesting it to me).

He also talks about how GEICO uses reviews to improve its products, too. Three years ago, who would have ever thought you’d use reviews to buy insurance?

Brett talks about how all types of companies are using reviews and other input to change all areas of the business – reducing return rates, improving service, etc. – and how online reviews create focus group-like information that helps companies determine exactly what they can improve. All without adding a huge new department in the company.

Brett also talks about how Twitter and Facebook will never have the impact of customer word of mouth on branded sites. Read the Forbes article in its (I love this) “Disruptions” section, “Where Social Networking Cashes In.”

Second, just one week later, our very own Brett Hurt was named Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year in Austin – one of four regional winners. The E&Y Entrepreneur of the Year awards recognize entrepreneurs who demonstrate extraordinary success in the areas of innovation, financial performance, and personal commitment to their businesses and communities.

I can’t think of anyone who deserves this honor more than Brett. In the description above, the word that I would emphasize most in describing Brett's motivation as an entrepreneur is community. An Austin native, Brett is very mindful of the positive, profound, and multi-generational impact that a single entrepreneur and business can have on the prosperity of a community. He sees Bazaarvoice's success and his own as a win for all of Austin, and he sincerely hopes that Bazaarvoice's success will bring prosperity to our community not just in terms of job and wealth creation but in the form of many future companies that our team members will one day start.

When I worked for Brett at Coremetrics, the company he founded prior to Bazaarvoice, he was expecting his first child and was in the process of shopping for a new stroller. Like many first-time parents (I recently went through this process myself), he did a ton of online research, finally landing at Amazon.com and finding an extremely long and detailed review contributed by an aerospace engineer who had methodically deconstructed and reconstructed the stroller in question, documenting the process and his observations on the stroller's design, materials quality, and workmanship at every step. This experience had a profound effect on Brett, as he imagined the power of this content for every shopper and purchase decision if it were available for every product and website. The idea for Bazaarvoice was born a few months later. Fast forward four short years and here we are – we have served 50+ billion reviews for 525+ global brands in 36 countries and we continue to grow (and hire!) like wildfire.

Please join me in congratulating Brett for his many accomplishments as an entrepreneur (Bazaarvoice is his fifth start-up company!), for the positive impact he has had within the Austin business community, and for being a genuinely sincere and humble person. He never fails to show his appreciation for the team at Bazaarvoice, our customers and partners, and the many supporters that have helped the company and Brett personally along the way.

So far, 2009 has been a big year for us – and there's still six months left to go!

Although Brett was out of town with his family for the awards ceremony, he was there in spirit – and in cardboard cutout – thanks to Bazaarvoice Marketing Manager, Amber Quist, shown here with Austin Mayor Will Wynn.

Congratulations, Brett!

As part of RISE – A Relationship & Information Series for Entrepreneurs, I'll share answers to questions entrepreneurs should consider regarding culture:

• How do you prioritize culture within the company?
• How exactly is it built?
• How can you sustain it as the world around you feels uncertain?
• What role do founders, executives, and managers play?
• How is this different when you are just starting out?

My speech, entitled Establishing the Foundation of a Great Company Culture, is part of this week's RISE series of events, and I'll be speaking this Thursday, March 5, at 2 p.m.

RISE is an annual conference series dedicated to providing a free forum for entrepreneurs to connect and exchange ideas that inspire the entrepreneurial spirit. RISE is a non-profit initiative with no cost to participate allowing entrepreneurs from multiple industries and backgrounds to exchange successful ideas. Unlike traditional conferences, RISE Sessions are limited to 25 participants and take place all over the city in areas where entrepreneurs naturally congregate.

The session, on Thursday, March 5 at 2 p.m., will be hosted here, in the Bazaarvoice office. Registration for this event is free, but act quickly – only a few slots are available. I look forward to seeing you here!

TechCrunch also wrote about Obama's plan to host fireside chats on YouTube, reminding me of FDR's fireside chats during another challenging time for our nation.

We live in a very historic time, and I'm trying to soak it all up to learn for the long-term.

Update 11/17: Just noticed Francois Gossieaux's post on the subject of cause marketing in the Obama campaign in his Facebook status update.  A good read.  Let's hope that Obama leverages the Millennials for civic causes, given his social momentum.  BTW, Francois does some good interviews, so it is worth following his blog.

Update 11/19: Twittermaven writes about Obama's success on Twitter being copied by the G7.

I was happy to see Andy leverage the valuable community we assembled at our first-ever and sold-out Summit in May by recording five video interviews. It was truly an amazing group of individuals, charged with word of mouth marketing at many of the largest companies in the world, from Bank of America to Wal-Mart. It was humbling to be in the presence of so many smart industry leaders, sharing best practices with each other in our rapidly emerging field. Because of them (as well as the hard work by our team), we have set a very high bar for our Summit next year.

Andy recently published his interview of me. We discussed how user-generated content is changing the merchandising culture at companies, helping them become more customer-centric and successful as a result.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Read on to see more interviews by Andy.

Andy previously published an interview of Ze Frank, another one of our keynotes and one of the funniest but smartest online personalities you will ever meet. Ze's interview at our Summit by Kelly Mooney (a Summit keynote speaker, author of The Open Brand, and President of Resource Interactive) was a personal mental highlight for me, probing into some very deep issues. Andy covers topics like viral marketing with Ze. By the way, that gong behind Ze in the interview is a very important part of Bazaarvoice's culture, and has been since the beginning. You can thank my co-founder, Brant Barton, for that, and you can find multiple gongs in our Austin office and one in our London office (so far).

Click here to view the embedded video.

Andy also previously published an interview of Steve Leveen, the founder and CEO of Levenger. Steve is a very smart leader, and brought his son to our event. Steve gave me some great tips on raising our daughter, Rachel, and is a very kind person (as is his son, by the way).  In Andy's interview of Steve, they talk about the use of video reviews and Flickr as a natural medium for Levenger's sophisticated customers.

Click here to view the embedded video.

If you have not subscribed to Andy's blog yet, do it today. Incredibly useful tips are published on an almost daily basis. I found myself recently evangelizing on why to follow it to the founder of Hey Cupcake, a local joint in Austin. I connected with the founder, Wes Hurt, recently after reading about him in Tribeza because we may be related (it is a long story). You must try these cupcakes the next time you are in Austin – they are unreal. But I'm off topic – I was telling Wes to read Andy's book and subscribe to his blog because he will quickly learn how to build his business as a result. I also found myself telling Wes the story of how Krispy Kreme lost its "specialness", parroting Andy telling me the same story.

On Andy's blog, he will soon be publishing the remaining two interviews he did at our Summit: Bryan Eisenberg (highly respected industry consultant, co-founder of the Web Analytics Association, keynote speaker at our Summit and several other conferences, prominent author [ClickZ, Call To Action, and Waiting for Your Cat to Bark?], and Bazaarvoice Advisory Board member) and Seth Greenberg (former CEO of eHobbies.com – one of the online pioneers, former Shop.org Board peer, and leader at Intuit).

* Note: we are proud members of WOMMA and our own Sam Decker serves on the Board of Directors while WOMMA's President is my fellow Board Director at Bazaarvoice, Ed Keller (keynote speaker at our Summit, author of The Influentials, former CEO of Roper, and co-founder and CEO of The Keller Fay Group).

This is an incredibly tough call to receive, and I have been through a wide range of emotions in the last 12 hours.  One way I am dealing with this is by writing this post, which I realize is more personal than my previous Bazaarblog posts, and you will not offend me if you stop reading now.

My father was a great man, but not one to intentionally draw attention.  But attention needs to be intentionally drawn.  My father was a great husband, father, grandfather, brother, inventor, entrepreneur, patent-holder, and natural-born comedian.  He has had a huge influence on my life, especially my drive as an entrepreneur.

My father was an Austin entrepreneur since the time I was born.  He blended his passion with his business.  He loved to go fishing off the Texas coast (mainly Port O'Conner), and spent 2-3 days almost every week doing that.  But he wouldn't just fish – he would innovate.  He developed the world's first halogen fishing light.  Fish are like insects in that they are attracted to the light.  He received a patent for this invention, and shipped the product all over the world.  Dad became successful as a result.

Being an incredibly generous man, he would always help his friends.  One of his friends was financially down on his luck.  My father had been working on a new variation of fishing lights, using a green band of light.  This was his "secret weapon" and fish would swarm to the greenish glow in a more unusual fashion than his previous halogen light.  Instead of capitalizing on it, my father gave it to his friend – for free.  Months later, his friend was selling over $300,000 per month of the product.  Dad never asked him for a penny.  I have been told by those in the industry that this is the dominant fishing light worldwide now.

Being an incredibly balanced man, he knew what he valued in life.  When I was 10, Wal-Mart approached my father to carry his products in all of their stores nationwide.  Dad turned them down.  I remember intensely pushing my father to do the deal.  Dad had declined because he did not want to ramp up his operation to that level.  It would have made him extremely wealthy, potentially, but it would complicate his life.  And he knew he was happy already.  I remember him looking me in the eye and saying, "Son, one day you may realize the value of keeping life simple… or you may not".

Being an incredibly creative man, he followed many passions in life.  This made him come off to many as eccentric.  But it also made him come off as fun and genius to many of his friends and family.  Here are some of them:

• The first synthetic food for monarch butterfly breeding.  This earned him accolades in a worldwide monarch fan club.
• The largest hand-made, hand-ground telescope.  The mirror has to be accurate to one-millionth of an inch.  Dad hand-ground the mirror for eight hours per day, using lasers to measure precision, for more than a year.  It was tremendously better than any telescope that most people could afford to buy.
• A fiberglass, street-legal race-car.  At over 500 horsepower and weighing 2,000 pounds with an almost perfect 50/50 weight ratio, it was a ridiculous driving experience.
• The first robotic fishing boat.  This was his current project, and he had been working on it for over three years.  You controlled it using a color digital interface from the shoreline.  It would sense when fish were biting and automatically reel them in.  Because it was so small and silent, the largest fish in Lake Austin did not expect it (they were smart enough to hear a motorboat – that's why they were so old and large).  As a result, Dad caught fish that he would weigh and show that they would be a Texas record.  But then he would unhook them and return them to the lake, letting them continue to live.  He wasn't looking for glory.
• and I could go on and on about his hand-made aquariums, huge kites, remote-controlled miniature race-cars, Koi pond, and so much more.

I will miss you, Dad.  I love you.  And I will continue to work hard to be the son, father, husband, brother, inventor, patent-holder, and entrepreneur that you would expect me to be and to become.

And thank you so much to my many friends and family that have been so supportive during this difficult time.  I sincerely appreciate your thoughts, prayers, and gifts.  I am truly blessed to know so many good people.  See a small sampling of the flowers that have been received at our house on Friday.  There are many others at my Mom's house.

If you would like, see photos of my father.  He was a very popular neighbor.  He would give away almost all of the fish to all of our neighbors, and this went on for decades.  Red snapper, you name it.  I grew up eating well.

Update on Saturday: so many more beautiful flowers have been delivered to our house, and I want to share the images of them with you.